The AI Productivity Paradox
A landmark 2025 study reveals a startling disconnect: developers predict massive time savings with AI assistants, but actual task completion is 19% slower. This interactive report dissects the 'Illusion of Velocity' and provides a framework for measuring real impact.
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The AI Productivity Paradox
Why developers feel 24% faster but finish tasks 19% slower.
As of late 2025, AI coding assistants like Cursor Pro and Claude 3.7 have achieved near-universal adoption in enterprise environments. However, a landmark Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) by METR (July 2025) reveals a startling disconnect: while developers predict massive time savings, actual task completion velocity has degraded.
- Perceived Velocity: +24% - What developers predicted before the study
- Actual Velocity: -19% - METR Study finding based on task completion time
- Sentiment Score: 60% - Down from 70% in 2024 (Stack Overflow Survey)
- The "Illusion of Velocity": Typing less feels faster, but debugging AI output takes longer
This report is based on METR's rigorous RCT with 400 senior engineers working on legacy Python codebases.
Understanding when AI helps vs. hurts is the key to capturing real productivity gains.